FUTURE OF WORK

The picture appears bleak for the Future of Work. That’s the impression taken away from the All Party Parliamentary Group on Ai. The session involved legislators hearing evidence on the impact of Ai on workers. Protecting worker rights while not stifling innovation is a priority. With an increasingly global workforce from which employers can choose, it is a complex balancing act.

APPGai

The All-Party Parliamentary Group on Ai brings together world leaders & global decision-makers. Its remit is to address the economic, social and ethical implications of developing and implementing Artificial Intelligence. (including machine learning, natural language understanding, automated reasoning, autonomous systems etc.).

Ai will impact every aspect of work in some form. One area that is causing great concern is the gig economy.

Gig Economy

The gig economy is where workers are paid for each individual “gig” they accomplish. A gig can range from food delivery to driving a vehicle to typing some code. Workers are paid by the job rather than by day or by the hour.

4.4m people work in the gig economy in some form in the UK, according to the Trade Union Congress. The gig economy is growing fast, with new online platforms bringing more services to market that require gig hirelings.

Gigification of work

Prof. Ashley Braganza (Brunel) sees a world moving increasingly towards the ‘gigification’ of work. He assesses that online platforms are taking a Taylorism approach. Jobs are being salami sliced into smaller components so they can then be automated or reduced to simple menial tasks. The salami slicing does not reduce the workload, only makes the role more defined.

Why is the gig economy different to temping or fruit picking?

The difference between gig workers of the past and now is the facelessness of the employer. The employee rarely meets the employer. The industry is a Wild West, says Anna Thomas, Co-Founder & Director of the Institute for the Future of Work. Pay is low, with 2 in 3 earning less than £4ph. Time spent on a platform chasing new work is not included when calculating the average pay. Too many of the jobs the platforms provide are repetitive. Unpaid tasks run at 30%. Communicating with clients is not the only issue. Meeting other workers is equally difficult, if not impossible.

Charles Barry. British architect best known for his role in the rebuilding of the Palace of Westminster. Architecture is one industry seeing a rapid rise in the use of gig workers for more mundane tasks.

Microwork and Piece wage task work

Microwork is a series of many small tasks which together comprise a large unified project, and it is completed by many people over the Internet. [1][2] Microwork is considered the smallest unit of work in a virtual assembly line. It is most often used to describe tasks for which no efficient algorithm has been devised, and requires human intelligence to complete reliably. Wikipedia

‘Piece work is any type of employment in which a worker is paid a fixed piece rate for each unit produced or action performed, regardless of time.’ Wikipedia

How is AI impacting the real economy?

Workers have lost control of the hours they work. Social inequality is being exacerbated, particularly among women. Opaque policies of the online platforms make it difficult for workers and regulators to ensure fair practice.

What happened when humans stopped managing social media content

Politco

EU to propose reclassifying some gig workers as employees

What can policymakers do?

There is a tricky balance for policymakers. Without an international agreement, legislators are limited in what regulations they can implement. If regulations become too stringent, citizens in that country may find certain jobs that will not be available to them.

Immediate Actions

Standard definitions for gig workers/gig work.
Organisation change their processes to smooth income understanding
Micro Workers should be paid minimum wage
Finder’s fee paid
Pre-tasked tests should be paid for.

Cori Crider, Co-Founder, of Foxglove says to ‘make algorithms fair and take legal action when they are not. There is real-world hurt to individual workers.’

Fourth Portal begins to establish itself as a gathering space.

A new type of work and social space is emerging that is both local and virtually global. Fourth Portal is at the forefront in developing these spaces with a live test site in the Norfolk seaside town of Great Yarmouth.

Summarising

We are in the ‘Amazonia Era’. The instinct would be to look back to the legislative response to Taylorism. The difference is that Ai is not a man in a white coat doing the monitoring; it is a machine. It could be regarded as the ultimate Fordarism – there is almost no escape.

And it’s not only in the gig economy. Close monitoring occurs in 8 of 10 large companies in the US, where boss work-watching technology has been implemented. On the present trajectory, job engagement is likely to fall.

New York Times

How My Boss Monitors Me While I Work From Home

Conclusion

Legislators will remain behind the curve when it comes to the gig economy. The pace of technological change and the demands of businesses and consumers will drive further platform innovation. With innovation will come new types of gig employment.

In response, a new type of work and social spaces will emerge that will exist locally and globally in the virtual world. These new spaces will seek to accommodate the change in how people wish to work, particularly since the pandemic. In turn, they will force other areas of legislation to catch up, with tax and finance being a priority.

Fourth Portal is at the forefront of creating such hybrid spaces where people can flip between different work roles, social interaction and retail experiences. The APPGai panel made clear the world of work faces major challenges from the growing gig economy. On the flip side, there are also incredible opportunities; especially for those who want to change the direction of their life and achieve a balanced work, social and family.

John M

____

The Future of Work APPGas took place on Monday 18 October 2022 at the Houses of Parliament, London.

Speakers

Gita Shivarattan, Head of Data Protection Law Services, EY UK
Cori Crider, co-Founder, Foxglove
Anna Thomas, co-Founder & Director, Institute for the Future of Work
Prof. Ashley Braganza, Professor of Business Transformation, Brunel University London
Neil Ross, Associate Director – Policy, TechUK

About APPGai and secretariat

The APPG AI was set up in January 2017 to address ethical issues and new industry norms for applying Artificial Intelligence (AI), including machine learning, decision making, natural language understanding, automated reasoning and autonomous systems.

Without being too technical, we will try to understand how AI will impact the lives of UK citizens and organisations, and subsequently, how should it be regulated? How will health, energy, insurance, consulting, financial, legal and knowledge-intensive business services be traded? How should the new business models be regulated, and what about the data? There is a lot to explore and evidence is key for regulation and policy. The APPG AI is co-chaired by Stephen Metcalfe MP (Conservative) and Lord Clement-Jones CBE (Liberal Democrat). The Group Officers are Chris Green MP, The Right Reverend Doctor Steven Croft, Baroness Kramer, Lord Janvrin, Lord Broers, Mark Hendrick MP and Carol Monaghan MP. Big Innovation Centre was appointed as the APPG AI Secretariat.

All-Party Parliamentary Groups (APPGs) are informal, cross-party groups formed by MPs and Members of the House of Lords who share a common interest in a particular policy area, region or country. APPGs have no official status within Parliament.

TOWN SQUARE

The Fourth Industrial Revolution will bring many challenges. As the world goes virtual, the role of public gathering places will need addressing. The Town Square must again become the centre of local discourse. If not, the 4IR may become known as the Period of Polarisation.

From Wikipedia

“A town square (or square, plaza, public square, city square, urban square, or piazza) is an open public space^[1] commonly found in the heart of a traditional town used for community gatherings. Related concepts are the civic center, the market square and the village green.”

Piazza della Signoria, in Florence, Italy, a historic example of a traditional public square

Announcement of the establishment of the State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs on Congress Square in 1918

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Town_square

Warning

Town squares will become contested during the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). Technology will permeate every part of daily life. As it does, the need for physical gathering places will rise. The risk is that such public spaces become battlegrounds.

Urban planners need to pay close attention, particularly in England. The virtual world is changing behaviours. These changes are spilling out into the real-world streets. [1]

Class system

Since the Edwardian period, England has neglected public spaces. Public squares that encourage the mixing of cultures are rare. The Georgians began the trend to fence off public spaces and streets. The policy was steeped in the British class system. In recent years, the privatisation of public space has accelerated.

Sample of English public spaces

In Southern continental Europe, the opposite is the case. Town squares are the centre of the entire community. The design, construction and purpose are all geared towards civic pride and participation.

Sample of Spanish public spaces

Spanish Squares

In Spain, all urban planning revolves around public space. There are plenty of elaborate squares and boulevards to be happened upon. Most though are of simple design and materials. They work for all occasions. Organised events, family gatherings, meeting friends or eating a sandwich. Finding a public space with a fence or a locked gate will be a challenge in Spain.

Some squares have a cafe or restaurant bordering the parameter; many don’t. It is unusual to see a cafe in the middle of a town square. Modern Spanish libraries and museums spill out onto public squares. Public spaces in Spain are welcoming and well used because of their simplicity. [2]

Comparison

The two photo galleries above show the public realm where people live. These are not tourist areas or places of commerce. Public spaces are there, in theory, for the local community and visitors to use and enjoy. The public realm in Spain sits at the very heart of a community. Unless there is a commercial reason, public space in England is a low priority.

Metaphor

Town Squares can be a metaphor for what is happening in the virtual world. Some people wish to see them controlled with restrictions on who has access. Others want them completely open, freeing and welcoming to all. [3] [4] [5]

Demonstration

Recent history has demonstrated how the virtual world can spill out into the real world.

Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, is the most prominent example. Protests in 2013 began online, discussing government corruption and policies. WhatsApp groups and Facebook posts began to grow and to spread. Soon these virtual spaces were not enough. People had to come together. Tens of hundreds of thousands of people started filling Tahrir square. Night after night protests continued until Egypt’s President Mubarak toppled.

Similar scenes with different results played out across the Arab world. These 2013 protests became known as the Arab Spring.

Although not on the same scale, most areas of the developed world have seen similar protests. The rise of the online protest hashtag has been instrumental. #MeToo and #blm (#blacklivesmatter) are the most successful to date.

Brexit

Britain’s exit from the European Union was a direct result of online campaigning. What followed has been years of disruption, strife and polarisation. The struggle between the Leave and Remain camps manifested physically in London’s Parliament square. The argument has continued right up to the present day. [6]

Brexit supporter carrying Great Britain cardboard cutout, Parliament Square.

Rise of technology

As life moves further online, the need for real-world gathering forums will increase. Failure of authorities to not plan for this change could lead to dire consequences.

Reasons for people to engage within the physical world has been declining since the 1990s.

The internet changed the world of work, allowing employees to be more distributed. The onset of the pandemic brought a further scattering of the workforce as people work from home. Retail has been shifting steadily online. Restaurant food can now be delivered directly to the family dining table. The world of supermarkets without cashiers is upon us. Online gaming transformed from a table gathering to global competitions. The gaming industry now dwarfs, by revenue, the movie and music industries combined. [7]

There are plenty of Apps that anyone can access for free. However, to receive the full benefit requires buying a subscription. Public squares in England surrounded by cafes and shops are similar. To fully partake in the space requires a certain amount of purchasing power.

Two-tier England

English Extremes

Above photos from the Argent development, Kings Cross, London (2020). Below, public squares managed by Great Yarmouth borough council (2021).

In Spain, public squares are places where people congregate, play and celebrate. The public realm encourages the community to come together for serendipitous moments. Spending power is not relevant except in the most exclusive of shopping areas.

Public forum, with permanent outdoor screen, multilevel seating, no barriers. Eivissa, Ibiza, Spain, 2022. [4]

In England, the opposite is too often the case. There is heavy reliance on the private sector to create public amenity spaces. It is another aspect of Britain’s two-tier society. Money buys access.

Fenced public spaces, ‘Keep off the Grass’ signs and other rules are commonplace around England.

Bridge-building

Public space needs to become the bridge between the virtual and physical worlds. Some may believe this is about introducing VR – virtual reality. VR will soon be playing a much larger role, but this is more about the physical spaces themselves.

The layout, ambience and purpose of the public domain in England should be along Spanish lines.

Free to access town squares must have 5G connectivity. Multipurpose seating and tables that encourage gatherings, games, meetings and work. Architectural flair can overcome issues around Britain’s inclement weather. The public realm needs to be attractive to all cultures, ages and abilities.

Without change, England risks further polarisation. Addressing the poor quality of places for public gatherings is now urgent.

Conclusions

The internet has slowly eroded the need for people having to meet fellow citizens. The pandemic has further reduced real-world interactions. Technology seeping deeper into everyday life raises the potential of a more isolated society. Free to access public spaces is critical for communities to stay in touch in the real world.

The political discourse around local issues cannot be online alone. To allow this will lead to unhealthy debate and will undermine stable democracy. Views are best challenged and debated in the open, in places where alternative voices can be heard.

Open, free, real-world forums, like town squares, are the best spaces for such discussion to happen. Being open will also allay some fears around privacy, censorship and freedom of expression.

Britain is in the grip of a mental health crisis, with loneliness and a sense of isolation increasing. Social media gets some of the blame. Not much is written about the lack of public amenity spaces.

England needs to rethink its approach to the public realm. Design should encourage serendipity and random conversations. Learning from Spain’s public spaces would be a good start.

We are in the fifth decade of the internet. It will be one that will see the virtual world and the physical world merge. Successful societies this decade will be the ones with the most engaging public realm.

Introducing technology into these spaces is the next phase around the world. Creating buzzing ambient public spaces will be essential for community lifeblood. Animated public squares will also attract the next generation of innovators.

England needs to rethink the public realm urgently! This is where ‘levelling up’ has to begin.**

John M

** Levelling Up. A Conservative government manifesto pledge. What does it mean? https://www.centreforcities.org/levelling-up/

[1] see Public Space

[2] see Eivissa

[3] see Censorship

[4] see Apple Privacy

[5] see Leiston and Sizewell

[6] see Brexit

[7] see AI Supermarkets

CENSORSHIP

The lines between privacy, censorship and freedom of speech blurred as the internet evolved. This blurring is where the battle for social media is happening. Only real-world dialogue and understanding will produce a solution fair to all.

It‘s unfair accusing governments of abdicating duty around online communication. The issues are complex. Every decision a government makes will have long term ramifications. Unlike laws within a country’s borders, the internet requires global solutions. What one country deems libellous will be satire in another.

Culture. Economic standing. Educational attainment. Religious and political norms. Many considerations have to feed into the internet debate. The EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provides the first step.

Overlords

In January 2021, Twitter removed the account of Donald Trump. During this period, Donald Trump was one of the most popular accounts, by followers, on the platform. He was also the sitting President of the United States of America. In removing the account, Twitter effectively issued a D-Notice.

A D-Notice is an old UK government device sent to media editors to voluntarily not report on a story. The fundamental difference between a democratic government and Twitter is one is elected, and the other is not.

And herein lies the rub. Who gets to decide what is and what is not acceptable online?

Has Twitter become a new form of democratic state? Rather than built on votes, Twitter runs on Tweets and sentiment.

Sentiment

Marketers use sentiment analysis to ascertain campaign effectiveness. It is a powerful tool for understanding how the public reacts to a topic or event. What it does not have are policy setting attributes. And this is what sets a government apart from corporations. Governments, in theory, set policies for the overall good of society in its entirety. Corporate policies set strategic goals for the company, shareholders and customers.

Distributed power

Aside from politics, the Trump episode highlights a dispersal of power. Beyond a vote, citizens can now vocalise their views, demands and concerns globally. This vocalisation has brought benefits and worrying situations. The storming of the US Capitol in January 2021 is one case in point.

Printing press politics

At the time of its creation, the printing press was the social media platform of its day. What followed sparked the violence of the Protestant Reformation and widespread education. One saw families and communities torn apart while the other brought societies together.

Our present period is no different.

The 2011 Arab Spring was, in part, attributed to social media as much as the underlying discontent. In Syria, a brutal war ensued. In Saudi Arabia, women began forcing reform around equality.

Protests, Black Lives Matter (BLM) and #MeToo went global due to social media. Groups opposed to change also use the same platforms to maintain the status quo.

So who is the referee for social media? And who was the referee for the printing press?

Public space and the arts

Public space has been the one constant throughout the history of societal change. Back to the time of the Greek agora, public space has proven pivotal, along with the arts, in forging progress.

Technological interaction is integral to progress. Real-world interaction is essential to peaceful co-existence.

It has never been more critical to have open gathering places and public spaces. Real-world environments challenge opinions and viewpoints. There is more exposure when people meet in person. More reactions are on show; body language, sweat, pupil dilation. These reactions can be positive or negative, depending on the situation. It is a different dynamic to sitting semi-anonymous behind a keyboard.

Fourth Portal

Public space, where people come together remains the best place for consensus to emerge. The arts will play a pivotal role as always. The ability of artists to see beyond the mundane will light the path.

The haphazard business journey has been to uncover what a hub of the future will look like? What does it need to convey? What will make it different?

The Fourth Portal hub needs to counter-balance the online environment. A hybrid meeting place, operating in both the real and virtual world. Open discussion and dialogue are intrinsic to the hub.

A successful Fourth Portal will spill over into other public forums. The reassertion of the historical value of public space is needed. Encouragement is required to reevaluate the importance of the town square and marketplace as places to gather. Urban design needs to incorporate hybrid relatedness into all future buildings. A well designed public space will be both physical and virtual.

Conclusion

Censorship demands by one group will be freedom of expression for another.

Measures to balance different views have not kept pace with the growth of online platforms. Meanwhile, the internet has become an extension of everyday life. It has allowed mass connectivity. Despite this, there is an increase in isolation and dis-association. Something is not right!

Censorship and privacy laws will be unable to address the problems of online interaction. Only real-life engagement and dialogue will solve these issues.

Governments are struggling to draft legislation. Big tech presently fills the void with their own rules.

We are only on our second-generation since the creation of the World Wide Web. The printing press has had dozens of generations shaping laws, regulations and principles, and we are still tinkering.

Public space, where people come together, remains the best place for consensus to emerge. It may take a long time. Discussion allows a better understanding. Ultimately, new online manners will emerge through real-world conversations – not on Twitter. The Fourth Portal will play a small part in nudging this conversation towards equitable consensus.

John M

BEYOND CAPITALISM

Seeing Kamala Harris huge happy smile brings me back to what I wrote exactly 4 years ago, as Donald Trump was confirmed US President. Vice-President Harris represents ‘the first flower open[ing] through a crack on the rocky path where only the ignored moss seemingly existed.’

Listening to the Vice-President’s humble speech acknowledging ‘the strength of vision to see what can be unburdened by what has been, and I stand on their shoulders’, recognises that positive change is a fluid process, built over time, and by many who had to sacrifice themselves to the cause.

For me, Trump’s arrival signified the ‘Last Throes Of Capitalism’; he has represented, and continues to be, the personification of capitalism in its most grotesque form.

As the new world begins to emerge, it is essential that there is not a seeking of retribution or punishment for the white man, whose hands continue to drip with the blood of the earth. Our new world has to begin as it means to go on, taking the hand of the scared, confused, frustrated and angry and show them how beautiful the world really is, and the size of the universe and the joy ahead.

Like providing experiences for a child who has never experienced joy, the challenge now is to embrace and lead not through punishment but through love, and then we can really begin to create a new world that lives with our mother earth, not against her.

Trump | Last Throes Of Capitalism

John McKiernan | Nov 9, 2016 | 1 min read

There is an observation of the death throes of the capital system, beached as it is on the shifting sands. The huge tail swings wildly as it gasps for air. The white man keeper is becoming desperate as he watches the enormous beast slowly dying, and with it his power. He knows the game is up. He looks around observing the emptiness, it was all an illusion, nothing actually ever existed in his world besides the youthful conjuring trick.

Suicide beckons as fear engulfs the scarred mind of deluded dominance. Now alone, watching the only thing he ever truly loved, flailing in front of his own eyes, he scans the horizon for whom in which to blame. He sees no one. There is nothing left. He will need to sleep soon as he is hungry and weak. In his angry daze, full of confusion, contorted by hate, he stumbles inadvertently under the last great flap of the monstrous tail. There is silence. Serenity returns. The first flower opens through a crack on the rocky path where only the ignored moss seemingly existed. The sun begins to shine brightly again.

Read the original blog post here

Headline Photo: New York Times

Sunset on Capitalism | John McKiernan

John M

BEYOND COVID-19

Post-Lockdown Pub Opening | Soho 04 July 2020 | Credit: Daily Mirror

UK Prime Minister Johnson ululates ‘return to normality’ as pubs in England reopen post lockdown, however things are not returning to pre-2020 normalcy and the Fourth Industrial Revolution is only going to further accelerate the process of fundamental change to the way we live.

Cover Photo: Soho Frith Street, 04 July 2020 Post-Lockdown | Daily Mirror

Pubs and Restaurants Reopen

Yesterday, 4th July 2020 pubs in England could reopen after almost 4-months of Covid-19 lockdown. There was excitement in some quarters, yet within the industry there is some trepidation, with many smaller operators delaying opening for a few weeks to watch what happens. Viewing Twitter, it was a mixed bag, some places very busy, others empty. Great Yarmouth at 7.00pm was pretty quiet with seats to be had in all pubs and bars that were open.

Fourth Portal is opening in a traditional English pub so is subject to the same rules and regulations as all licensed premises. The plan opening is for the middle of July 2020 and then only on reduced hours. My barometer has been to watch Texas and Florida in the US, where there was a gun-ho approach fuelled by rising populism that saw pubs and bars open within a few weeks of initial lockdown. Now Texas hospitals are on alert for a patient ‘tsunami’ as cases rocket upwards.

John Hopkins University Texas Cases | Source: Sky News

See Sky News report Friday 3 July 2020 23:38, UK (click)

Race to Normalcy

Commentators early on in the pandemic were already predicting politicians, big business, and many institutions would attempt to return things to normal – however unlikely! Screenwriter Julio Vincent Gambuto predicted an onslaught of marketing to return a sense of normalcy ;

Pretty soon, as the country begins to figure out how we “open back up” and move forward, very powerful forces will try to convince us all to get back to normal. (That never happened. What are you talking about?) Billions of dollars will be spent on advertising, messaging, and television and media content to make you feel comfortable again. It will come in the traditional forms — a billboard here, a hundred commercials there — and in new-media forms: a 2020–2021 generation of memes to remind you that what you want again is normalcy. In truth, you want the feeling of normalcy, and we all want it. We want desperately to feel good again, to get back to the routines of life, to not lie in bed at night wondering how we’re going to afford our rent and bills, to not wake to an endless scroll of human tragedy on our phones, to have a cup of perfectly brewed coffee and simply leave the house for work. The need for comfort will be real, and it will be strong. And every brand in America will come to your rescue, dear consumer, to help take away that darkness and get life back to the way it was before the crisis. I urge you to be well aware of what is coming.
Julio Vincent Gambuto

Allowing pubs and cafes to open is the UK government’s attempt at returning to that ‘normalcy’ and encouraging silly hashtags like #supersaturday to build expectation, as if it is a big international football tournament.

4IR Concertina

The World was on the cusp of dramatic change even before the Covid-19 pandemic as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) began to emerge, in essence the virus has just hastened that change. Zoom meetings, online shopping, in-store shopping apps, sharing technologies have all boomed during the pandemic. Even grandma learned pretty quickly how to use Apple FaceTime once she became cut off from visitors. The health sector, from care homes to Intensive Care Units (ICU) has had to embrace advanced technologies at speed to cope. Technologies that were predicted to take a good number of years to become everyday, have literally been adopted overnight, with the adopter curve virtually losing all meaning.

There are many benefits to this sudden shift, however there could be significant downsides in the short-to-medium term as the economy struggles to readjust and adapt, as my post on AI Supermarkets (Dec19) discusses;

“How much are the authorities and government preparing for the potential tsunami of job losses that may incur because of this technology and changing consumer behaviour? What new skills do people need to learn to still be economically active in the coming Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR)?”
AI Supermarkets, Haphazard.Business, 18 Dec 2019

The AI Supermarkets blog post surmises a 3-to-5 year timeline for governments to build training programmes and prepare. Now with Coronavirus still raging that timeline will be concertinaed into 6-to-12 months!

Leadership Failure

Much of the horrific slaughter of the early battles in World War One (WWI) came about because ageing generals applied Napoleonic War tactics in a time of mechanical technological change. Almost incredulous to a modern observer, when looking through the lens of hindsight, men on horses were sent to cavalry charge tanks and machine guns. There is reasonable evidence already available that when historians look back at the Covid-19 outbreak it will be noted that it was not that the technology to limit the devastating impact did not exist; it was an old mindset, incapable of adapting strategy and using new tools available that led to such devastation of lives and livelihoods.

The UK Track and Trace system is a shambles and does not work. Tens of thousands of people have been employed to use pencil and paper to phone people when many other more efficient methods could be implemented and to great effect. The whole concept is a car-crash of old and new cultural thinking about security, data, privacy and greater societal good. Meanwhile large technology firms have had a boom period, with a large proportion of the global population forced to stay at home with nothing but the internet and phone to communicate with the outside world.

Big Tech’s billionaire class will have more power after the crisis than they had before, argues Sally Hubbard of the Open Market Institute. Brick-and-mortar retail is hemorrhaging jobs at a time when Amazon is adding hundreds of thousands of their own. Google is gaining even more of a foothold in the home as educators across the country deploy Google Classroom to teach students remotely — whether you want your family to use it or not.
Vox| Recode

With populism ravaging the Western democracies and authoritarian regimes cracking down hard on dissent, it is difficult to predict how the power of these giant private enterprises will be curbed. Regardless how disinterested an individual may be towards these issues will not indemnify that person from being buffeted by the consequences. A key objective of the Fourth Portal, and these Haphazard blog posts, is to raise the awareness of these competing forces and assist people in negotiating the rapid changes we are all undergoing.

Near Future

Once/if a vaccine is secured, or enough people are immune to this strand of Coronavirus, the planes will begin flying again to a schedule and the pandemic will seem like a vivid abstract distraction, distant and almost unbelievable. Of course, this will only be for those unaffected or uninvolved. For those who lived through it on the frontline, whether in health, care home, bus driving and many other risky roles, and for the survivors and those who have lost loved-ones, the pain, and maybe terror, will live on, possibly indefinitely. For the rest, the world will have changed dramatically and the years ahead will continue to change dramatically as technology and new systems infiltrate every single aspect of daily life.

John M

Reference

Julio Vincent Gambuto, 10 April 2019 · 9 min read, Prepare for the Ultimate Gaslighting* | You are not crazy, my friends, Forge. Online 13April2020 https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for-the-ultimate-gaslighting-6a8ce3f0a0e0

Theodore Schleifer @teddyschleifer ( Apr 7, 2020, 6:00pm EDT), These are the trade-offs we make when we depend on billionaires to save us | Now more than ever, the coronavirus crisis has Americans living in tech billionaires’ world. Vox. Online 14April2020. https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/7/21203179/coronavirus-billionaires-philanthropy-bill-gates-larry-ellison-mark-zuckerberg-jack-dorsey

SILENT CACOPHONY

With Covid-19 ravaging populations and the World trying to come to terms with lockdown, it seems an appropriate moment to reactivate this Platform-7 project from 2013 exploring the trauma that follows on from a sudden shocking change in circumstance.

https://www.silentcacophony.info

History

Silent Cacophony took place in a multitude of locations simultaneously on Remembrance Day 2013 exploring the abstract nature of events like we are presently experiencing with Covid-19. The disease is inflicting mass death, suffering and forcing populations to adapt behaviour, and it can be assumed, leading many people to reassess what being human means.

Meaning of event

Increasingly over the past century the word ‘event’ has become associated with some form of performance, whether pop festival or football match. However, ‘event’ is really a moment in time when something extraordinary happens, which can be bad like a car crash or great, as when a healthy child is born. Daily life is full of small personal events that make up an individuals’ personality and worldview, then occasionally these small events are overtaken by a major personal event, as in being diagnosed with cancer or winning the jackpot on the lottery.

Recreating the feelings, emotions and empathy an individual feels at the moment of experiencing a major event is very difficult to recreate outside the bubble of that actual moment. The pain of hearing of death of one that is dearly loved or joy of first-love are very personal and acute sensations. In my view, only art can offer a close proximity to such emotions, by twanging the atoms deep within that foist upon humans the extreme emotional response that only appear in times of rare circumstance.

Silent Cacophony

Silent Cacophony inception came from reading personal diaries of people living through the two World Wars, particularly those who were exposed to sudden explosion, whether a bomb landing on their house or a bombardment from artillery while in a trench. A pattern began to emerge where people would describe life before a particularly incident in rosier terms and the time afterwards using deeply disturbing language. Similar accounts can be found when reading witness statements from victims of terrorist atrocities and major accidents. Terms like ‘it was so peaceful you could only hear the birds sing’, ‘life was all so perfect before…’ or ‘not a sound could be heard before the first explosion’ proliferate such writing. What I found fascinating was whether there was any reality to these accounts, the ‘before the explosion’ moment where they claim to be actually aware of the world surrounding them. My challenge was fairly mundane, people notice silence when they go on holiday to the country from the city or find themselves on a deserted beach, however in the general hubbub of daily life the sounds of aeroplanes, the worry about going into overdraft and picking up the kids from school fills the conscious mind. For soldiers during war, concerns about mother’s health at home or finding some extra rations become the daily normal. Basically it is rare for people to note such change in their daily life except in exceptional circumstances, like going on holiday, going to war or, as in now the present case, a global pandemic.

A mother’s cry

Silent Cacophony sought to try and mimic the experience of sudden change. Anyone who has listened to the wailing of a mother on hearing of her child’s death will often say it is one of the most harrowing sounds that can be heard. Such a sound, which can only be truly created by such grief penetrates the consciousness as no other. The loud bang of an explosion, or the internal crunch of bones one hears when in an accident, offer very precise moments in time, an event few ever forget. These moments are so abstract to daily existence that it becomes a struggle to interpret, both internally within the mind and externally when explaining to others. The philosopher Walter Benjamin wrote of the silence of those who returned from the trenches of the First World War, they would not discuss the horrors, and took the experiences to their graves without ever sharing. The silence hides the trauma, almost a cacophony of competing thoughts, processes and arguments going on within the mind. Self-challenges, ‘could I have done more’, self-loathing, self-doubt and many other competing internal discussions churn over and over, days, weeks, years and too often for lifetimes.

‘Was it not noticeable at the end of the [First World] war that men returning from the battlefield grown silent – not richer, but poorer in the communicable experience?’ (Benjamin, 1990, 84)

Covid-19 abstraction

The world is now sharing a worldwide abstract experience, as if it is a global abstract art intervention in which everyone is a participant. In the UK at least, there is a resounding Silent Cacophony dichotomy. Street of cities and towns are in the most part silent, beyond birds and occasional distant vehicle, yet it can only be guessed at by us on the outside of hospitals the noise, bustle and horror that is occurring within those buildings.

As with war diaries, and with accounts of those who have experienced terrorist attacks, there is likelihood of some rearranging the pre-Covid-19 memories; money was not such an issue, there was enough food, actually the relation with father was OK. A gloss will be painted over the top of peeling flakes in hope it will deceive the eyes to the reality of these events, it will be the only way for people to restart their daily lives. However on a wider scale, a collective change is in motion and only time will be able to reveal what it will look like.

Reflection

For me, I suppose, is that following this crisis more people will be willing (or able) to appreciate the importance of abstract art and performance, and the unique role it plays in preparing everyone for the unknown. Abstract art intervention events like Silent Cacophony seeks to safely challenge people to consider beyond the hamster wheel that we are all collectively engaged in turning, while rushing about in living daily life. Life will return ‘to normal’, however the normal will not be as it was. Only through reading, watching and listening to our words and actions pre-Coronavirus that we might be able to understand who we were then, as our own minds will distort the past, no matter how hard we try.

Coming of sound

My one forecast beyond this period will be the increase in those interested in sound, soundscapes, soundart and concepts of noise. When the planes begin flying again, people will notice the noise, it disruption to sleep, to conversation and to life – and this will lead to a fundamental revaluation.

John M – 11th April 2020, Easter Saturday

References

Benjamin, Walter. (1990/1955) Illuminations, Ed. Hannah Arendt, Translated by Harry Zorn, London, Pimlico

HAPHAZARD RESPONSE

Does the name Haphazard Business seem less abstract than two weeks ago? The haphazard response to the Covid-19 epidemic around the world provides a stark reminder how quickly situations can change and the importance of being open and nimble when faced with sudden disruption.

Photo: Changing The Lightbulb | Four White House staffers huddle together pre-President Trump’s press briefing announcing paramount importance in observing social distancing. (Screenshot from YouTube, 27March2020, by John McKiernan)

What’s in a name?

The name Haphazard Business took several months to decide upon. It was essential to convey the precarious nature of all plans; no matter how well laid out they may be on paper. Planning is very important in creating any business or pursuing an idea, however it is also equally important to create contingency throughout, and be ready to abandon previously hard held views.

On setting out on this journey to create a hub, few understood why I chose this name, it made no sense as it is not selling anything and is abstract. Yet today, with the Coronavirus keeping more than half the World’s population on lockdown, does Haphazard Business seem less abstract?

Changing Tack

The Washington Post in mid-March ran a headline combining ‘haphazard’ and ‘helter-skelter’ when describing the White House early response to the Covid-19 outbreak. Helter-skelter is not in the Haphazard Business Glossary, although soon to be added, and refers as much to the rollercoaster ride we are all embarking upon as to the more recongnised meaning; “in disorderly haste or confusion.” (Google)

Jared Kushner’s ‘haphazard and helter-skelter’ coronavirus response revealed by The Washington Post (Raw Story)

Kushner entered into a crisis management process that, despite the triumphant and self-congratulatory tone of public briefings, was as haphazard and helter-skelter as the chaotic early days of Trump’s presidency — turning into something of a family-and-friends pandemic response operation.

The administration’s struggle to mitigate the coronavirus outbreak has been marked by infighting and blame-shifting, misinformation and missteps, and a slow recognition of the danger. Warring factions have wrestled for control internally and for approval from a president who has been preoccupied with the beating his image is taking.
Washington Post

Although the businessman within President Donald Trump has been pivoting wildly in the last few days of March 2020, as the full scale of the crisis and the impact on the US has become apparent, it was by all measures a slow response. His unwillingness to listen to the professional advice being offered may prove his downfall. His fixed mindset refused to acknowledge wider factors beyond his own experience, and can be a lesson everyone can learn from.

Post Covid-19 World

At time of writing, no one knows how this global crisis will play out. What is fairly clear already is that individuals, communities, business and the global economy are going to stumble out of this into a new World. The Kaleidoscope has been shaken dramatically, and business as usual cannot resume.

Haphazard Business was not a prophesy of impending crisis, it was and remains a blog to demonstrate the need for flexibility and to encourage expanding the nuance within an idea or project being pursued; the importance of being open, adaptable and accepting of change and challenge. Creative collaboration trumps the lone scientist (pun intended), as Walter Isaacson points out masterfully in his book The Innovators.

Going Forward

It might be difficult today to believe, as the death toll mounts, that we will come out the other side of this pandemic. It is imperative that those in a position of power, wealth and stability, as well as the visionaries, now step up to the plate with urgency and begin to shape the post Covid-19 World into something that is more equitable and empathetic than our recent past.

I have already set in motion the speeding up of my plans and these will be revealed over coming blog posts. Please feel free to comment below.

John M

References

Brigham, Bob. 14 March 2020, Jared Kushner’s ‘haphazard and helter-skelter’ coronavirus response revealed by The Washington Post, Raw Story, Washington, Online. https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/jared-kushners-haphazard-and-helter-skelter-coronavirus-response-revealed-by-the-washington-post/

Washington Post, 14 March 2020, Infighting, missteps and a son-in-law hungry for action: Inside the Trump administration’s troubled coronavirus response, The Washington Post, Washington. Online.https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/infighting-missteps-and-a-son-in-law-hungry-for-action-inside-the-trump-administrations-troubled-coronavirus-response/2020/03/14/530c28b4-6559-11ea-b3fc-7841686c5c57_story.html?arc404=true

HAPHAZARD TIMES

Starting a business is always somewhat Haphazard, however a gas leak, no water, weeks of storms, and Coronavirus initiating a stock market crash has been a little more than was bargained for … and Brexit is still yet to come!

Gas Leak and No Water

A few weeks back, it was announced on this blog site the opening of two new haphazard.business hub within weeks! The intention was to do some cleaning, basic repairs and get the places open before slowly developing each site over the coming year, while encouraging local people to join the journey with suggestions that would steer the design.

Within a few days of taking the keys, hub one had access issues to water and hub two had an odd smell that turned out to be a slow gas leak. Both places require much more attention than first believed and it was clear opening would take slightly longer than first expected. Although disappointing, this is not unusual when occupying old buildings.

Storms

In January, Storm Brendan kicked off more weeks of rain. It was soon followed by Storm Ciara, Storm Dennis and Storm Jorge causing major disruption and becoming the wettest February on record. Although Great Yarmouth was one of the luckier places not to suffer flooding, travelling, transporting equipment, and just generally moving around without getting soaked all began to cause issues. Visitors and help struggled to reach GY due to transport issues. A general gloom had already descended on many people because of the lack of sunshine, almost constant wind and dealing with the drizzle cum heavy rain, even before the Coronavirus outbreak reach the U.K.

Covid-19 Coronavirus

This last week (March 01-07) Covid-19, commonly known as Coronavirus, claimed its first life in the UK. As I write, there is a discernible sense of rising panic as cases increase across the globe leading to large falls on the world stock markets and panic buying in some supermarkets. London is noticeable quieter on the streets. Surveys of the hospitality industry capture the growing worry as the spring holiday season approaches.

The data showed 85% of senior executives across the out-of-home food and drink market were now “concerned” about the threat of coronavirus to their businesses, with 58% of leaders “very concerned”.
The Caterer

Haphazard Business Blog

The intention behind this blog is to document the often haphazard nature of creating a business, project or idea, as even the most careful planning can be scuppered by unexpected circumstances. However, the last few weeks have had a number of quite exceptional circumstances way beyond what would be normal, and things may yet get much more hairy!

Documenting The Next Stage and Stress

Beyond a ban on public gatherings, or some further issue that causes delay, one of the hubs, probably hub two will open later this month, with a very stripped back offer. My intention is to try and document the journey as best as possible. One of the greatest causes of stress is not being in control of circumstances and lacking information. The last week in particular has been difficult, trying to decide how best to move forward. A new normality will creep in over coming weeks and I hope to capture this here for future readers to understand how decisions have been made and are affected by unknown, far off as well as close to home events.

John M

References

The Caterer, (06 March 2020), Restaurants and pubs ‘left reeling’ from coronavirus and new immigration rules, Jennie Milsom, London, online. https://www.thecaterer.com/news/hospitality-businesses-reeling-coronavirus-immigration-rules

AI, ACADEMIA AND COMMUNITY

In this FT podcast, the director of UCL’s new AI institute, Prof. David Barber discusses the importance of interdisciplinarity, need for innovation and having a wider public conversation about AI and potential impact, as this technology begins touching all our lives.

FT Podcast

AI Research and Big Tech, 19th December 2019

John Thornhill talks to David Barber, director of the UCL Centre for Artificial Intelligence in London, about how academic researchers can work with business and the wider community to create the best outcomes for society. (FT)

Key points from the podcast in relation to creating an innovation hub…

AI Engineering

AI is now touching on all our lives.
We still don’t know how to solve AI, we are in the early years, no one really knows how it will play out, the key reason why there is need for interdisciplinarity in this area.
Bias, fairness, ethics are not mathematical questions, engineers are not the arbiters of AI, they will do what ‘society’ requires.
AI community is very pragmatic and will go with whatever works.
Some old techniques, like semantic understanding and symbolic knowledge will re-emerge.

Innovation

The major innovations we are likely to see in the nearer future include the self-driving car, automation in agriculture with intensive farming coming closer to city centres or/and having close connection to supermarkets.
Drones or robots will increasingly carry out delivery of goods and products, although this will still be difficult to achieve.

Academic Funding

The academic funding model is broken.
We will see increasing partnering with tech firms or private companies.
Universities remain highly relevant, although scattered public funding can make research very challenging.
Many academics are straddling working for tech giants while keeping a university post.
There is a real danger more academics and university projects will just be scooped up by tech giants.
This poses a risk, as most of the key developments should not be in the hands of big firms, they need to be shared.

Global View

The East has a more collective view to the world, working for society as a whole compared to the West’s more individualist outlook, and protection of rights and freedoms.
These freedoms could come at the cost of advancement.
Because of this, China is leading world in application of AI.
For example payment systems in Europe; there are still many people suspicious of paying with a credit card, or insist on cash only, where as in China many citizens pay with their phones, and could soon be paying with just their face.
A big cultural distinction is that China’s population is more receptive to new technologies, whereas in the West it is more difficult, and this makes access to the data in Europe more difficult.

Knowledge Quarters

Kings Cross knowledge quarter is developing, creating a concentration of knowledge and diversity, although there needs to be more on the innovation rather just focusing on the corporate sector.
We need more innovation from the start-up level across the UK, which can scale and grow to significant size, rather than just being gobbled up by tech giants.
There is no scale-up infrastructure in UK.

Need for Interdisciplinary within AI

There is need for wider and more inspiring conversations around AI.
The AI for People and Planet institute will be holding events on how AI and Art can play an interesting role and create synergies.

AI research and big tech (FT)

A weekly conversation that looks at the way technology is changing our economies, societies and daily lives. Hosted by John Thornhill, innovation editor at the Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/ea8af249-230b-4355-b1ff-a81e71b5ccc3

AI SUPERMARKETS

Amazon is considering licensing its Go supermarket technology to other retailers. The impact on jobs and the broader economy could be significant. Low-skill supermarket workers the algorithms replace may struggle to find alternative employment.

Tomorrow’s Supermarket Today

Online retail giant, Amazon has been developing a supermarket needing no cashiers. It relies on a handful of staff members. Using cameras, sensors, scanners, Amazon Go registers people when entering the supermarket. Customers pick up whatever they need and walk straight out. The bill appears on an app the customer needs to download in advance within a few seconds.

Amazon Go now has 17 unstaffed supermarkets in the US (see case study below). Customers enter, choose their shopping and leave without queuing or scanning their items. Bloomberg reports Amazon is considering licensing the technology to other companies. It also intends to open more stores.

“Now, having improved the technology, the company is getting closer to its original ambition. Amazon aims to support stores as large as 30,000 square feet, the size of a typical modern supermarket.” (Bloomberg)

Self-Checkout

Shoppers are already acquainted with self-checkout machines in the UK. An increasing number of stores have almost no human employee operating checkouts. How long can it be before even the self-checkout machines become redundant?

Apple Pay, Google Pay and a host of other mobile phone payment apps are now in general usage. It is a short next step towards fully automated mobile phone payments. Customers enter a store, choose desired items and exit without any interaction whatsoever.

The Tesco Threat

Tesco has also been developing ways of making shopping in-stores a seamless process. As far back as the 1990s, the company were considering embedding Rfid tag technology.

If Tesco automated completely, the impact on jobs will likely be immense. Tesco employs 450,000, many with low skills. Supermarket jobs are vital for those requiring flexible working. Single parents and gig workers are particularly vulnerable to losing out. If Tesco decides to licence Amazon’s technology, the consequence will be significant. The shop portfolio below shows the number of employees working in the UK and stores of up to 30,000 sq ft:[59].

Employee graph updated April 2024

New World of Work

How much are governments preparing for the potential tsunami of job losses that may incur? Technology and changing consumer behaviour will continue to evolve towards automated retail. What are new skills will those losing jobs need to remain economically active?

The Haphazard 4IR Innovation Hub* intends to discover how people plan to adapt. What new opportunities will be awaiting them in this next iteration of industrial change?

Below is a case study of what the supermarket of the near future will look like. It is crucial that policymakers begin to take the impact on jobs seriously.

Case Study

A review of Amazon Go, a fully AI automated supermarket without cashiers where you can just walk straight out with your food without queuing. | By Yvonne Rogers, Professor of Interaction Design, the director of UCLIC and a deputy head of the Computer Science department at UCL.

Interactive Ingredients

I had the pleasure of visiting Amazon’s HQ in Seattle last week to give a talk on my research. I also got to experience Amazon Go – the new grocery store they have created which has transformed how you purchase goods. You simply sign up, walk in, pick up and walk out. The paying happens automatically in the background.

It is perfect for those who are in a rush and need to grab some lunch or a snack. No need to wait again for someone taking for ever deciding what to buy at the deli or fumbling with their purse to pay. ‘Just walk out shopping’ is their slogan.

It is a big step up from the last supermarket innovation of the barking self-checkout machines. Instead of scanning each item, you download the Amazon Go app and then place the QR code that appears on your mobile phone at a turnstile reader that lets you into the store. You are then registered as a customer, enabling you to take anything off the shelves, place it in your pocket or bag and then simply walk out when you have got what you want. Then, seconds after exiting, you get a receipt that itemizes what you took and deducts the amount owing from your Amazon account. It is all done through AI tech.

I thought Amazon’s 1-click ordering for online shopping was very clever at reducing the burden of shopping. But this new-fangled idea of shopping without having to go to a checkout is even more innovative. Except you feel a tad guilty – at least the first time – walking out of the store without the physical action of paying – almost like shoplifting in broad daylight.

So how does the tech do it? Has it stopped shoplifting? Can you trick the system? The smarts are in how the computer vision, sensor fusion and deep learning are combined to track you and what you take from a shelf. Look up to the ceiling and you see an array of depth sensor cameras protruding that track you and your arm movements as you move around and lift your arm towards a shelf.

The imaging is coupled with what is detected as being removed using weight sensors that are placed on the shelves underneath each item. All pretty clever and reliable. The only time it may get confused is if two people in close proximity put their arm out at the same time, one on top of the other and reach out to a shelf at the same time. It could mistake the arms so that each gets billed for the wrong item. But it is smart enough to know if someone picks something up and put it back down again – even in the wrong place. Unlike the first generation of smart hotel mini-bars that billed you for just opening the fridge and lifting something out to take a look.

There are 17 of these stores now in the US and more being built each month. What next one wonders – if this kind of automated convenience store takes off. Besides revolutionizing how we purchase goods it could be used in other places, such as bars and pubs, removing the need to have to wait in line to buy a drink. You could even pull your own pint – but someone will still have to pick up the dirty glasses afterwards.

Tags: Go Amazon, shopping

Case Study and header photographs Yvonne Rogers

*The first Haphazard 4IR Innovation Hub will open in Great Yarmouth in winter 2020.

Please feel free to comment below.

John

References

Rogers, Yvonne. Amazon Go, Interactive Ingredients, 23 July 2019. Blog.